Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
