Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
